U.S. Economy Shrinks For First Time In Three Years As Businesses Rush To Import Ahead Of Trump's Tariffs, President Attributes The Quarter To Biden

The Filing

WASHINGTON. The Commerce Department confirmed Wednesday that the American economy shrank at an annual rate of 0.3 percent in the first three months of 2025, its first contraction in three years, a milestone President Trump greeted by explaining that the three months in question had actually belonged to his predecessor.

The decline, the first since early 2022, reversed the 2.4 percent growth recorded in the final quarter under President Biden. Economists noted that the largest single drag on the figure was a historic surge in imports, as American companies raced to bring in foreign goods before the President's promised tariffs could take effect. Because imports are subtracted in the calculation of gross domestic product, the administration's central economic initiative had achieved the distinction of shrinking the economy twice, once through the tariffs themselves and once through everyone's rational attempt to avoid them.

"This is Biden's economy," the President wrote online, in a statement that did not address why the stock market, the tariffs, and the calendar had all waited until his term to produce the number. He urged Americans to "BE PATIENT," a request the tens of billions of dollars in imported goods sitting in newly rented warehouses were in no position to refuse.

Officials within the administration described the contraction as a technicality, noting that a quarter defined largely by companies stockpiling goods to escape a Trump policy could not fairly be counted against the Trump policy. One source close to the economic team said the front-loading of imports proved the tariffs were "already working," in that they had successfully caused a nationwide rush to buy things before they arrived.

The Council of Economic Advisers reassured the public that the underlying economy remained strong, pointing to categories of spending that had not yet been asked to absorb the cost of the coming trade war. Independent forecasters, for their part, revised their expectations downward, citing the possibility that the second quarter might feature the tariffs without the convenient one-time boost of everyone buying things to avoid them.

At press time, the President had clarified that any future quarter showing growth would, by contrast, belong entirely to him.

Who Benefits

§Donald Trump personally, who converted the first economic contraction of his presidency into a story about the previous one, while reserving all future growth for himself.
§The Trump political operation, which gained a ready-made "It Was Biden" explanation for any bad number that happens to arrive on a calendar it controls.
§Importers, big-box retailers, and wholesalers, who front-loaded billions of dollars in foreign goods ahead of the tariffs and, in doing so, briefly beat the President's own policy.
§Customs brokers, freight forwarders, and warehouse operators, who profited from the nationwide scramble to stockpile inventory before the deadline.
§Foreign exporters, particularly in China, who accelerated first-quarter shipments to American buyers eager to purchase before the levies landed.
§The tariff agenda itself, credited by the administration as "already working" on the evidence that the country had rushed to act before it existed.

Sourced to the public record · presented without editorial embellishment